Endemic-Epidemic Framework Used in Covid-19 Modelling

[Discussion on the paper by Nunes, Caetano, Antunes and Dias]

Abstract

Nunes et al. ([54]) provide an overview of mathematical models used to analyse epidemics and techniques for conducting studies to obtain parameter estimates for such models. They discuss the SEIR model which has been used in much coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) analysis. Our discussion presents a modelling framework based in time series analysis developed for the analysis of infectious disease surveillance data, as well as our use of the framework in analysing COVID-19. We believe many of the purposes of modelling infectious disease outlined by Nunes et al. ([54]) as well as the benefits of mathematical modelling highlighted can also be found in the statistical modelling techniques we use in our work.